tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post1182115628554936911..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: OPEC Stability WatchStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-62320226383787119832011-02-23T04:38:23.709-08:002011-02-23T04:38:23.709-08:00Burk:
Color me callous then :-)
However, I would...Burk:<br /><br />Color me callous then :-)<br /><br />However, I would point out that it won't be spoiled Americans that are hurt worst by an oil-shock - as usual, it will be poor people in poor countries that are hurt worst.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-85308162313057331512011-02-23T04:36:45.775-08:002011-02-23T04:36:45.775-08:00Emil:
My guess is that we'll see a range of o...Emil:<br /><br />My guess is that we'll see a range of outcomes - just like the ending of communism produced a range of outcomes from places like the Czech republic or Estonia that transitioned to functioning market democracies relatively smoothly, to places like Uzbekistan that are autocratic. Russia itself is somewhere in between.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87773244493186331522011-02-22T23:25:41.020-08:002011-02-22T23:25:41.020-08:00I share some of Stuart's sentiments.
Part of...I share some of Stuart's sentiments. <br /><br />Part of this is that revolution in the West has often been seen as the way to democracy(such as in France or the U.S.) but in the Middle East this is very rarely the case.<br /><br />What will happen in places like Libya is either that there's a new strong man(just like Ghadaffi was installed in a revolution of his own) or an anti-democratic group like in Iran(although the Libyan version may be without the messianic elements).<br /><br />This does not mean Arabs are 'incapable' of genuine democracy, only that given the regions past track record it's actually realistic not to assume too much deviation from BAU (regionally adapted).<br /><br />A continued upheaval in this region would most likely disrupt our economic recovery substantially. Perhaps a new '08 crash, this time without bailout funds and Peak Oil more or less a fact of life.Emilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14468005369763866961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-4108596330519874832011-02-22T15:03:01.428-08:002011-02-22T15:03:01.428-08:00Hi, Stuart-
Yes, you are absolutely correct. It c...Hi, Stuart-<br /><br />Yes, you are absolutely correct. It could turn out badly. It just seems a little callous to be worried about "civilization" - i.e. our oil addiction wrenched from Libyan sands- while their people are dying in the streets seeking political freedom.<br /><br />And if the Saudi people staged a revolt for increased religious and political freedom, I would be for that too, happily ignoring any difficulties that might cause to their oil production.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-33125614787463305982011-02-22T14:17:11.103-08:002011-02-22T14:17:11.103-08:00To expand on my earlier comment, let me ask this -...To expand on my earlier comment, let me ask this - is there any reason that a transition to democracy in Libya is likely to go faster/better than it did in Iraq? It's one thing to kick out your autocrat - that's the easiest part. But then building democratic institutions and a culture of democracy amongst your elite - that's a whole different animal, and much more difficult.<br /><br />We certainly have no right to tell these peoples not to try, but I think it's only prudent to anticipate that the process could be pretty bumpy.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-55385240602559387572011-02-22T13:44:30.306-08:002011-02-22T13:44:30.306-08:00A graph at WTRG posted in 2004 suggests 7 and 5.9 ...A graph at WTRG posted in 2004 suggests 7 and 5.9 mb/d spare capacity in 1978 and 1989, respectively. The revolution in Iran took 4.5 mb/d off the market, starting with strikes in the fall of '78. KSA minister says, once again, that we're "well supplied" = "WS." Will be interesting to see if they deliver if the need arises.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-9302981439333912312011-02-22T11:30:36.736-08:002011-02-22T11:30:36.736-08:00Burk - I agree with a lot of your statement. Howe...Burk - I agree with a lot of your statement. However, my concern is that a lot of what these revolts are about is food and fuel prices, and there is significant potential for a vicious circle. If oil production in Libya goes down (say) it's likely to increase both fuel and food prices everywhere else, making other revolts more likely. And while it's true that any one of the OPEC countries transitioning to democracy is an excellent thing, it's likely to be a messy process in at least some cases, and I'm not sure them all of them transitioning at about the same time is going to work out that great.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-2282284134733968732011-02-22T11:19:21.228-08:002011-02-22T11:19:21.228-08:00Burk
You can stop right now. Sell your car and sto...Burk<br />You can stop right now. Sell your car and stop breathing to reduce CO2 emissions. You can save us all.Kamilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14527274323642523489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87784981286459209722011-02-22T10:17:56.808-08:002011-02-22T10:17:56.808-08:00Hi, Stuart- With all due respect, the political at...Hi, Stuart- With all due respect, the political attitude you exhibit still seems a bit wan. The main short-term risk to civilization would be for these revolts to be unsuccessful and crushed. Their civilizations have been blighted for far too long.<br /><br />Our western civilization can take a few weeks (or months, or years) of reduced oil production. We have to get used to it sooner or later. And the civilization of the biosphere can hardly take another minute of us spewing CO2. The sooner it stops, the better.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.com