tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post9085014768563084..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Slowing Rossby Waves Leading to Extreme Weather?Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-36549798031624609542012-07-08T04:33:13.896-07:002012-07-08T04:33:13.896-07:00I think the terrible situation in the
UK is expla...I think the terrible situation in the <br />UK is explained mostly by this theory. There is a huge Rossby Wave loop over northern Europe for the third year in a row. It has blocked in the wrong place for more or less 4 months now and is predicted to be the same into August. We are on course to lose our butterfly population and other insects!! Lack of warmth, endless thick cloud cover and monsoon like rains means they cannot be sustained much longer. 20% fall in numbers every year for the last three years. It is increasingly difficult to grow crops, rotting due to waterlogged ground and no warmth to ripen them. Tomatoes are effectively impossible to be grown now. This year, bees were not present in our very cold April and first three weeks of May to pollinate apples trees etc.<br /><br />Major flood events occur every few years. Dozens of people have died and the ground is fully saturated in midsummer. April and June were both the wettest EVER recorded - July is following suite. <br /><br />I can foresee a terrible future if these conditions continue for a few more years. However, next year it may be Europe that bakes in record temperatures, while the USA shivers. Mark JosephMarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07445518701456014002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17223698985121264552012-06-13T11:24:43.254-07:002012-06-13T11:24:43.254-07:00Fascinating, like the synopsis – perhaps you could...Fascinating, like the synopsis – perhaps you could comment on this. I live in the UK and for the past 3 years we have had awful summers cold and wet (and 2012 looks as though it’s going to be the same), the Jet Stream is south us whereas, at this time of the year, the JS should be moving north. <br />I have been trying to work out the reason for this – it must be climate change related but the facts seem to contradict this behaviour. <br />You mention that the warming of the Polar air mass has “slowed” the Rossby waves down but can this also affect the other characteristics? For example, the track, the wave length and amplitude. If so, this may be what I’m looking for.<br />ThanksJet Stream Gedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022295195827458936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-90841900909053441212012-04-16T11:48:41.371-07:002012-04-16T11:48:41.371-07:00"In general, it appears to me that the climat..."In general, it appears to me that the climate system is more complex than climate science is currently able to fully model, and so it's constantly throwing up surprises in the way it reacts to the changes humanity is making in the atmosphere. This should not be reassuring."<br /><br />Stuart,<br />I think you are right.<br /><br />But this should not be come as a surprise. Why in the world would anyone assume that the global climate system is NOT more complex than our best attempts at modelling/understanding?<br /><br />It seems to me that Earth's climate system is so complex that we should EXPECT so-called "Black Swans" - not be surprised by them.Lucas Durandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12978045535093722565noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68691439034672843302012-04-07T05:05:34.430-07:002012-04-07T05:05:34.430-07:00Stuart,
I understand that the atmospheric Rossby ...Stuart,<br /><br />I understand that the atmospheric Rossby waves and the Gulf Stream contribute about equally to the habitability of northern Europe, which is situated at the same latitude as northern Canada. Oslo and mid Hudson Bay are both at 60° north. Changes in transport of atmospheric heat with the waves as you indicate might have an important influence on Europe also, possibly even more than on US.Lars-Eric Bjerkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12632949799117185675noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-12970052284636634782012-04-06T08:23:15.791-07:002012-04-06T08:23:15.791-07:00A copy of the paper is available on her site:
http...A copy of the paper is available on her site:<br />http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdfJay Althttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11146408415375034447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-77020380341778897562012-04-06T06:17:46.671-07:002012-04-06T06:17:46.671-07:00Thanks for the summation. Enjoyed it thoroughly.
...Thanks for the summation. Enjoyed it thoroughly.<br /><br />As a practical matter, trading ag commodities should be very interesting to say the least.A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-6812552308206283642012-04-06T02:02:59.144-07:002012-04-06T02:02:59.144-07:00There are links to Dr Francis's January lectur...There are links to Dr Francis's January lecture on this paper, and her lecture powerpoint presentation, here:<br />http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/dr-jennifer-francis-on-arctic-weather.htmlChris Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843133350978717556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51478038356612911202012-04-05T13:30:29.148-07:002012-04-05T13:30:29.148-07:00They didn't assess it but I would expect the e...They didn't assess it but I would expect the effect to be much smaller because Antarctica hasn't warmed nearly as much (there's a giant block of ice miles thick down there versus a few meters depth of sea ice to melt).Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-42175930336020809812012-04-05T12:01:15.177-07:002012-04-05T12:01:15.177-07:00I know your paper said Northern Hemisphere, but wa...I know your paper said Northern Hemisphere, but was anything mentioned about the southern hemisphere?<br /><br />Looking at the globe, there is much more water, as opposed to land in the area bordering the southern polar region.<br /><br />I would imagine the same effect exists but it would be much more muted due to all that water.<br /><br />There is pretty much no appreciable land at 60 south. 30 south has little compared to the northern hemisphere.<br /><br />The 30 south line is a little below the midpoint of Australia, and that continent has had some very unusual weather the past few years.<br /><br />Incidentally there was terrible flooding in Columbia recently, and they are pretty close to the equator.sunbeamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04973635024133927262noreply@blogger.com