tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post8703784278859262118..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Singularity > Climate Change > Peak Oil > Financial CrisisStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-50445180462738312662015-11-27T02:18:55.794-08:002015-11-27T02:18:55.794-08:00What you are saying makes no sense. It assumes an ...What you are saying makes no sense. It assumes an exponential growth rate rather than a linear on. <br /><br />The whole singularity thing is bogus, a red herring and a waste of time. If Kurtweil had to bet his families lives on it, he wouldn't. <br /><br />Just regarding Moore's Law. It has reached the very limit of semiconductor technology at a quantum level. You can't divide a track that is one atom wide in half. Even Moore says it would be totally ridiculous for the Law to be expected to continue forever. It was never even a law in the first place but an OBSERVATION more relevant to Intel s's production cycle. The Inconvenient Truths about "Care"https://www.blogger.com/profile/12309942947299485252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-86174051213099592622013-05-01T06:36:04.221-07:002013-05-01T06:36:04.221-07:00Burk: "Thanks for a very interesting post. T...Burk: "Thanks for a very interesting post. The one bit I would critique is the notion of declining employment. There is far more to our economy than manufacturing. We have artists, musicians, nail salons, professors. In short, we like to provide each other with all kinds of services that will constitute a future economy. "<br /><br />So far (for the past few decades, and the foreeable future), these jobs in general pay less. There's many, many scutwork jobs for every professor job. If you look at the old 'symbolic analyst' idea, those are precisely the jobs which are soon to be wiped out.<br /><br />And BTW (referring to the original post) it's not just a matter of 'smart/skilled/etc.', it's a matter of ownership. If you own these AI assets, you draw profits from them. If you don't too bad, for most people. <br /><br />What we've seen in the developed world, especially in the USA, is a trend towards a majority being economically displaced sharply downwards, a minority not profiting but making a living, and a tiny minority reaping virtually all of the increased income.Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-18827854560448902152010-07-26T00:26:19.741-07:002010-07-26T00:26:19.741-07:00Stuart, I'm sorry I missed this post when it f...Stuart, I'm sorry I missed this post when it first came out...<br /><br />One question I have: How do I know that looking at only male employment trends is meaningful? The last few decades have seen tremendous social changes with regard to gender. What have female employment trends been? Same trend or different? What is the employment trend for both sexes? It seems to me that if you're comparing robots to humans, you ought to look at all humans.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845156229855095380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-15393313647775164032010-07-09T05:59:51.752-07:002010-07-09T05:59:51.752-07:00A personal anecdote concerning automation of jobs....A personal anecdote concerning automation of jobs. In a previous life I was a crew member on E3 AWACS aircraft for the USAF. This is a 707 type airframe with a typical crew load of 18-30 individuals (4 on the flight deck, the balance in the back), depending on the mission. It was initially fielded in the late 1970s as computer systems were just becoming advanced enough to be deployed in airborne C3 applications. Other than some computer, navigation and radar system upgrades, the current fleet is not much changed. The newest C3 aircraft on the block, the Aussie 737-based Wedgetail, will perform much the same mission with vastly improved battle management capabilities and half the crew (8-10). Eliminated are 2 flight deck positions (Engineer and Navigator) and numerous "technician" positions. The E-3 has technician specialists for the communication, computer display and radar systems, for a total of 4 mission crew techs. I'm not sure about the Wedgetail, but modern automation has probably reduced the number of techs to 1 or none. Of course, in this example, fewer people is a good thing, but the point is that military automation will have 2 major impacts: 1) fewer people will be employed by the military, which in past economic downturns has provided employment to many who otherwise would compete for scarce civilian employment and 2) enable technologically and/or financially gifted nations to wage wars with far fewer humans in the line of fire than their less fortunate opponents.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03426645582412261765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-5465982715039385852010-06-05T04:50:59.477-07:002010-06-05T04:50:59.477-07:00singularity is impossible until the controlling we...singularity is impossible until the controlling weak link (the human species) is replaced:<br /><br />http://geaugailluminati.wordpress.com/2009/07/01/the-human-race-is-almost-finished/rjshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15681812432224138582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68027763648290432282010-05-25T20:26:44.029-07:002010-05-25T20:26:44.029-07:00Right.Right.10in10Diet.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530875231162335190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51232127975878013012010-05-24T18:46:43.625-07:002010-05-24T18:46:43.625-07:0010in10 - I'm not saying the time for action is...10in10 - I'm not saying the time for action is in the second half of the century, I"m saying the worst of the damage will occur then. There are huge lags between action and response. From when we really decide to get serious, it will take several decades to substantially decarbonize the economy, and then there are an uncertain but significant number of decades added by the ocean's heat capacity. So the time to start acting was "a number of years ago".Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-91810312014338342982010-05-24T18:23:08.602-07:002010-05-24T18:23:08.602-07:00I jumped over here from your comment on Kunstler. ...I jumped over here from your comment on Kunstler. Very thoughtful posts and the comments, too. I'd like to recommend Richard Powers' novel Galatea 2.2 for a very meaty meditation on artificial intelligence. Myself I'm getting tired and a little suspicious of the glibness and glee from Kunstler and the Archdruid. I agree that technology will continue to put human beings out of work. What I don't see here is the interplay between peak oil and climate change. They aren't separate. If we get to the point where the price of oil skyrockets, then we will already have done irreversible damage to the climate. So, where you say something about getting a grip on the climate later in the century – it will be too late, the feedbacks will be out of control. So, if we continue on the path of innovating and manufacturing whiz-bank goodies for a shrinking elite, we are going to fry the planet. Tell my I'm wrong, please.10in10Diet.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07530875231162335190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-29560483403517330392010-05-24T09:51:30.517-07:002010-05-24T09:51:30.517-07:00Here, pop culture raises its ugly head in form of ...Here, pop culture raises its ugly head in form of the 'singularity' which is a phenomenon categorized somewhere between 'Una- bomber' and Washington Capitals' winger Alex Ovechkin.<br /><br />This is written on a computer that is 100 times as fast and has 200 times as much memory than 'the old one' but is less useful because old one runs Photoshop and Word and this one doesn't.<br /><br />You have to know Steve's First Law of Ecnomics: the cost of managing a surplus (memory or computing power or dollar reserves) rises with the surplus; eventually the cost exceeds the value of the thing itself.<br /><br />The singularity is too expensive and so is pop culture, which requires autos, coal mines, fly ash avalanches, nuclear 'dead zones' and massive oil spills among other things.<br /><br />As for finance not have 'real' effect, please Google 'The Great Depression'. One of its unintended consequences - the Bruning Deflation - resulted in Adolf Hitler and you know what happened next.Steve From Virginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04002636865996847926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-33431259453949004512010-05-23T08:30:23.308-07:002010-05-23T08:30:23.308-07:00Your robot example does not take into account the ...Your robot example does not take into account the massive industrial and transportation infrastructure required to both build and upkeep it. <br /><br />Aside from the fact that without cheap oil all of that infrastructure will be more valuable as scrap metal unless it is being used for essential services like food production, or more unfortunately, warfare, the real question is: Is it more efficient to have a robot in place, or to have guards living on site with an attendant victory garden? <br /><br />When oil is at $50 a gallon i think it's pretty clear that the latter wins out by a landslide, and so it is that kind of arrangement that you should expect to see in the future. <br /><br />Without fusion power, the singularity is a religious movement. How will you power this grand singularity? Even with the necessary energy it is not at all a given. With some luck fusion will remain out of reach until humanity has learned to reintegrate itself with the natural world, or else we are sunk.<br /><br />What humankind needs to realize is that we are destroying the most sophisticated technology ever devised, and that is functional ecosystems. Considering the hubris of industrial culture, i'm not holding my breath.polypus74https://www.blogger.com/profile/08321182577216243192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-49439497359372681822010-05-22T02:25:38.100-07:002010-05-22T02:25:38.100-07:00Very insightful, thank you.
The "economy&quo...Very insightful, thank you.<br /><br />The "economy" may continue to function on fewer humans - and continue to facilitate exchanges beneficial to the parties to such transactions. But what happens when approaching the point where there are no humans - and transactions are apparently between entities of artificial intelligence? <br /><br />Will such entities have the incentive and impetus to continue such transactions on their own, and if they do, will humans amount to detritus?Robin Dattahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15358491380192365005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-8302548759917032202010-05-21T10:17:15.272-07:002010-05-21T10:17:15.272-07:00Good, thoughtful post, with an interesting take on...Good, thoughtful post, with an interesting take on the singularity thing.<br /><br />Your point about "separation" or "stratification" is the most salient. Technology is not a leveling force in human affairs, and when the weight of the futurist singularity falls on the 7-9 billion of us, only a relative few will benefit.<br /><br />I don't think there we'll get that far due to the other points you noted (peak oil is undersold somewhat in your analysis as it directly relates to "peak food".) The coming resource wars over water, oil and shrinking strips of arable land will be effective population curbs (as will our fascist tendencies to incarcerate/terminate anyone who faintly resembles a threat to "our way of life".) We--by whom I mean "most of humanity"--won't see Kurzweil's dream; we'll just be statistics counted up by those increasingly powerful computers run by the rich people in their heavily fortified bunkers.Deskpoethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10736178402493211834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-15070031576676841642010-05-21T07:48:17.861-07:002010-05-21T07:48:17.861-07:00Mike:
Excellent points/questions. On your first ...Mike:<br /><br />Excellent points/questions. On your first point, I think one issue where I'm probably forcing things a bit in order to be cute is on the relative timing of singularity/automation issues and climate change. I think really these are both things that are causing trouble already, and will get steadily worse over the century. So really the timing of these two is probably roughly similar in so far as we can tell, which is not very precisely.<br /><br />Other than that, I think there is something a little more than coincidence to the relationship - humans are better at responding to acute crises than ones with a lot of lags built in, because we have fairly short discount horizons.<br /><br />And I generally agree with your second point - if we fail to navigate the earlier challenges successfully, then we won't be worrying about the later ones. The way I think about it is more "even if we deal with the financial crisis, peak oil, and climate change, we still face an automation singularity! Yippee!"Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-9873683998740357892010-05-21T07:43:00.174-07:002010-05-21T07:43:00.174-07:00Lanie:
Welcome to comments!Lanie:<br /><br />Welcome to comments!Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-21309780449128634022010-05-21T03:38:43.767-07:002010-05-21T03:38:43.767-07:00Singularity is nothing but wishfull thinking, a re...Singularity is nothing but wishfull thinking, a reflection of the ultra utilitarianist mindset that can't see anything else, and most artificial intelligence research is pure junk.jdl75https://www.blogger.com/profile/15366583375524963151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-11697220974526557232010-05-20T23:36:19.900-07:002010-05-20T23:36:19.900-07:00Long time reader..very interesting post!
So can I...Long time reader..very interesting post!<br /><br />So can I ask when you do see the peak happening and do you see a severe shortage in the 2014-2016 range, like I keep reading on peak sites? <br /><br />I think I would put the financial crisis 1st. If we have full-on collapse in the next 2-20 years, like some are saying, that will greatly undercut the funding needed to do any mitigation of the other problems. I believe the financial crisis will deliver the 1st and most serious blow(assuming it hasn't already). I hope I am wrong. Although, even if I am there is x,y,and z waiting to take its place. <br /><br />Feeling rather gloomy today! Maybe it's all the rain. :-)AngryToasterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04453635025901395330noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-38164182254960850562010-05-20T19:45:38.164-07:002010-05-20T19:45:38.164-07:00Very interesting. I'd love to see the book ver...Very interesting. I'd love to see the book version of this. Question, though: Is it just a coincidence that your two uses of the > symbol are perfectly congruent? Why is each more serious challenge also further in the future? Does this say something about the nature(s) of these disparate problems, or about the way you're thinking about them, or as I mentioned, just a coincidence?<br />Also, it seems to me that if the first three problems are serious enough (and the efforts to deal with them are nearly all-consuming, as it seems they might get to be), then I don't see how the singularity will happen. If our societies and economies are being strained by recurrent financial/economic crises, the effects of peak oil, and the effects of climate change, and also massive and disruptive attempts to "solve," blunt, delay, mitigate, or adapt to these problems ... then from where will come the funding, the energy, the special tools, equipment and materials, the highly-educated and highly-paid workers, and the secure facilities (and the overall social stability) -- all of which will be required in order to do the work which could bring the singularity about? Seems to me that fields like artificial intelligence and informatics will get lost in the shuffle, or at least become relatively stagnant. We will have more urgent things on our plates, which will attract whatever attention, energy, talented people and funding can be spared.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02957020536641219683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-49905747988127973182010-05-20T14:16:53.104-07:002010-05-20T14:16:53.104-07:00ptone:
I'll certainly defer to your neuroscie...ptone:<br /><br />I'll certainly defer to your neuroscience expertise! I did read 3 or 4 neuroscience texts a year or two back, as well as a bunch of stuff on the current state of neural implants. The conclusions I came to is that progress on understanding and interfacing to the brain is likely to be much slower than ongoing progress in silicon. It seems that it's inherently difficult to make a precise interface to a big jelly blob, and in addition, the need for brain surgery and clinical trials of devices seems like it will make progress way slower than the 18mo-2 year product generation turnaround of the chip industry.<br /><br />I don't know about the ultimate end point in Mips/Watt, but improving it has been a big trend in recent years - primarily driven by mobile devices. Rack servers could be made far more power efficient if that was a major sales driver. There is a whole <a href="http://www.greenm3.com/" rel="nofollow">green data center movement</a> these days, so I expect there is some pressure for improvement. However, in the specialist security appliance space, I've never of a customer mentioning it. For five and six figure specialized boxes, the energy cost of running it is neither here nor there.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-60785729213112240782010-05-20T13:58:13.937-07:002010-05-20T13:58:13.937-07:00KLR - yeah, I also think Kurzweil is exaggerating ...KLR - yeah, I also think Kurzweil is exaggerating the speed with which things will occur.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-18911642942571761322010-05-20T11:59:04.705-07:002010-05-20T11:59:04.705-07:00in my above comment, that should have been "p...in my above comment, that should have been "powerful computers are *NOT* accelerating our understanding of that area as much as they are accelerating, say facebook pages served per day."ptonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15848091617757807820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-57285393847063946442010-05-20T11:57:32.223-07:002010-05-20T11:57:32.223-07:00There are several issues that I have with the disc...There are several issues that I have with the discussion of a singularity. As a PhD in Neuroscience, let me say that our fundamental knowledge of how cortex -> consciousness is still very primitive. Not that the science gap couldn't be closed, but powerful computers are accelerating our understanding of that area as much as they are accelerating, say facebook pages served per day.<br /><br />I doubt that a computer will ever beat a human on energy/computation. With 1 calorie of food energy - our brains are able to do a staggering amount of computation. With current energy prices, a high end server already costs more to power over its life time than it does to buy. Ever increasing processing power requires ever increasing energy use. A computer is a more "efficient" machine than a ICE in terms of the "work" done - but it is still bound by the limits of energy.<br /><br />I also think that the singularity is really the odd man out in your list. It truly is still science fiction, while all the others are to some degree "here and now"<br /><br />-Prestonptonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15848091617757807820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-71241545909127246992010-05-20T11:50:49.028-07:002010-05-20T11:50:49.028-07:00There have been some good pieces on the singularit...There have been some good pieces on the singularity at Slashdot. A consensus opinion is that Kurzweil is much too optimistic for his own good, that he overstates his case quite dramatically, sort of a Matt Savinar for nerds. Well, MS himself no doubt has some dorky followers too...<br /><br />Kurz made quite concrete bold predictions in 2005, too:<br /><br /><i>The 2010 Scenario. Computers arriving at the beginning of the next decade will become essentially<br />invisible: woven into our clothing, embedded in our furniture and environment. They will tap into the<br />worldwide mesh</i><br /><br />[snip]<br /><br /><i>We'll have very high-bandwidth, wireless communication to<br />the Internet at all times. Displays will be built into our eyeglasses and contact lenses and images projected<br />directly onto our retinas.</i><br /><br />[snip]<br /><br /><i>By focusing multiple sets of beams on a wall or other surface, a<br />new kind of personalized surround sound without speakers is also possible.30<br />These resources will provide high-resolution, full-immersion visual-auditory virtual reality at any time.</i><br /><br />[snip]<br /><br /><i>We'll have real-time translation of foreign languages, essentially subtitles on the world, and access to<br />many forms of online information integrated into our daily activities. Virtual personalities that overlay the<br />real world will help us with information retrieval and our chores and transactions.</i><br /><br />Etc. Glad to see you point out that so much of this tech is driven by whiz bang impulses, i.e., gaming. Many of the Slashdotters referred to much more nuanced commentators on this than Ray, forget the names. <br /><br />Now, what will drive the development of tech if we're cutting back drastically on PC purchases, or are ironically out of a job in the first place because of that advancing tech? Or if we're forced to resort to carpooling to get to work because of fuel shortages, and our partner isn't interested in tooling over to Best Buy on our way home? We can shop online of course, but where does that leave BB? I really liked Big Gav's TOD piece about hooking up carpoolers via cell phone, btw - that could fill some of these type gaps, assuming they are implemented successfully.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-1411472441262436382010-05-20T11:01:52.807-07:002010-05-20T11:01:52.807-07:00I think the breakdown in complex systems will proc...I think the breakdown in complex systems will proceed rapidly enough that I'm not particularily worried about a singuality affecting us.<br /><br />I think you really put climate change/ecological collapse way farther out that the evidence suggests (to me). I phrase it that way because I think many of the things we see happening right now in our ecosystems are not necessarily solely the result or even mostly due to climate change, but have a component.<br /><br />But consider the following symptoms of ecological breakdown already occuring:<br />1) accelerating species loss.<br />2) rapidly increasing numbers of dead-zones in the oceans.<br />3) acidification of same oceans.<br />4) widespread loss of corals.<br />5) the death of vast areas of rocky mountain forests.<br />6) The dieout of honeybee colonies<br />7) Loss of ecosystems due to introduced species.<br />8) dieout of amphibians worldwide.<br />9) continued rapid deforestation<br />10) melting of tibetian glaciers.<br />11) accelerating instances of droughts and floods worldwide.<br /><br />This short list is just off the top of my head, but I think the collapse of ecosystems is farther along that you suggest, and I think the there is a risk that economic effects of these will lead to contraction/collapse/reordering of societies MUCH sooner than post 2030-50.Bill Reiswighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10750634817564055072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-9720886994445508242010-05-20T08:27:23.072-07:002010-05-20T08:27:23.072-07:00Very interesting Stuart. Your points regarding sin...Very interesting Stuart. Your points regarding singularity will take me a while to digest. They raise issues about what life actually is and what we humans mean by "we humans." Clearly we've been linked to technology, and in a sense are tools of our tools, for a LONG time. <br /><br />Regarding peak oil, the latest EIA data (with the customary retroactive revisions) show that 2005 had higher production of crude oil and lease condensate than 2008.Mike Aucotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05692592170835103639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-33629082200396267962010-05-20T06:45:50.404-07:002010-05-20T06:45:50.404-07:00Kjm:
The best coverage of that topic that I know ...Kjm:<br /><br />The best coverage of that topic that I know of is Peter Singer's book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_0_12?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=singer+wired+for+war&x=0&y=0&sprefix=singer+wired" rel="nofollow">Wired for War</a>. It's a pretty chilling read. The robotic revolution in military affairs has definitely started and is well underway.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.com