tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post7760895834730314569..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Global Shipping CapacityStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-26703872323370625312011-05-30T12:58:42.202-07:002011-05-30T12:58:42.202-07:00When oil prices cause ships to sail at slower spee...When oil prices cause ships to sail at slower speeds, it takes more shipping capacity on the water to deliver the same number of tonnes from A to B per annum. The continuing increase in shipping capacity should be seen in that light.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17968788517390352722011-05-26T17:58:41.817-07:002011-05-26T17:58:41.817-07:00It seems to me that, given their core importance t...It seems to me that, given their core importance to the way economies currently run, and given that most of the world's decision makers want those economies to keep running the same way, it is likely that food, energy production, and transportation would be maintained at the expense of other sectors.<br /><br />You might have to try and figure out whether other sectors are being shorted in order to maintain those "high-priority" sectors. I'm not sure what data set(s) one would use to try to support that idea though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-89600872160691524082011-05-26T16:40:10.921-07:002011-05-26T16:40:10.921-07:00I wonder how much of the last 2 years of data migh...I wonder how much of the last 2 years of data might be momentum. By that I mean ships that had been ordered prior to 2008 that were in the construction pipeline. I don't know anything about commercial ships, but the military ones they build in these parts take at least a couple of years in the construction.HalFiorehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18432415155069446325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-53610696482789880442011-05-26T14:22:18.370-07:002011-05-26T14:22:18.370-07:00Ocean shipping is very low energy per ton-mile. Th...Ocean shipping is very low energy per ton-mile. The concern is misplaced. Look at air fright first.Michael Tobishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08229460438349093944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-50659154733082757072011-05-26T14:18:45.903-07:002011-05-26T14:18:45.903-07:00For developing markets, oil is still a bargain com...For developing markets, oil is still a bargain compared to no-oil. Hence, expansion of shipping to developing nations could indeed be the biggest factor in the increase. Meanwhile, the West has suffered a recession that has reduced demand - but we have yet to have what I would consider a real "price demand destruction" moment for oil.Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08580497879135994296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-63205240311204266672011-05-26T10:31:05.975-07:002011-05-26T10:31:05.975-07:00Perhaps the price incentive to sell oil dearly on ...Perhaps the price incentive to sell oil dearly on the international markets is overcoming the desire to placate the producers domestic masses...A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-44753111126624646982011-05-26T07:28:21.611-07:002011-05-26T07:28:21.611-07:00Could it be that when oil decline in mature areas ...Could it be that when oil decline in mature areas like US and Europe trade goes up at first even though production reaches a plateau. New oilfields in far away places and demand destruction in economically weaker countries means more shipments of oil.Isakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01157853788086505763noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-78030745293600235102011-05-26T06:25:18.547-07:002011-05-26T06:25:18.547-07:00Interesting article, thanks for the UNCTAD link.
...Interesting article, thanks for the UNCTAD link. <br /><br />One thing to note is that figure one is shipping capacity, not tonne miles. A graph of that is here (http://www.marisec.org/shippingfacts/worldtrade/volume-world-trade-sea.php).<br /><br />By this estimate trade in crude oil and oil products has been essentially flat since 1998 at about 10,000 G t-miles/yr. Given the data from your first graph, the utilization of ships must have decreased substantially. This ties with what I read regarding the blocking of the Suez canal during Egypt's revolution - there is plenty of spare capacity to travel around Africa if needs be.<br /><br />Based on BP data, with 2 G t of oil exported in 2009, the average oil barrel travelled 5,000 seaborne miles, down from about 6,000 seaborne miles in 1998. Some of this is probably down to e.g. China being closer to ME than America and increased pipeline transport (Canada to America).<br /><br />If net exports do indeed decrease, then it could be an important source of demand destruction (marine bunkers consume about 4.5 mb/d, with oil currently 1/3 of that).cimon9999https://www.blogger.com/profile/08949910641873967386noreply@blogger.com