tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post720498913563648474..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Exceeding the 2008 Peak of Oil ProductionStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-88770780914195295572010-04-16T05:21:36.320-07:002010-04-16T05:21:36.320-07:00Stuart
On the one hand I think you're correct....Stuart<br />On the one hand I think you're correct. Within the next few months a new high will be close in nominal terms (nominal=gross energy)<br /><br />On the other hand, we are still technically on a (limited) plateau. If we do make a nominal high it won't change our overall situation much. (And it will have happened due to massive unsustainable increase in debt)<br /><br />NateNate Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16047228065827556610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-59419224410336457412010-04-06T13:48:52.763-07:002010-04-06T13:48:52.763-07:00The problem, as always, is this is an opaque marke...The problem, as always, is this is an opaque market where the fundamental data is not properly transmitted, its lots of secrets and gaming. No real surprise either, on the other side of the equation, the gold and stock markets are heavily manipulated, with lots of smoking guns....<br />(For starters, a god place for research on stocks and gold manipulation: Zero Hedge)Manolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-62391504866883061022010-04-06T11:19:13.408-07:002010-04-06T11:19:13.408-07:00Using the most complete data available from JODI I...Using the most complete data available from JODI I have 3819.34 kb/d recovery in Oct 2009: 63665.97 kb/d, up from a Nov 08 trough of 59846.62 kb/d. This leaves out Iraq/Venezuela/South Africa/Russian Federation/Singapore, who have incomplete data sets - this last four still haven't reported Nov 08! - and assorted small fry consumers. <br /><br />How does that jibe with 2.2 mb/d of production recovery? Some seasonal adjustment would be in order, for instance Iran/KSA/Iraq piled on 714 kb/d by June 09 to power their A/C, which they subsequently turned off, but still...also there is the gap between Liquids and C+C; NGLs might as well be Bubble Up for all a motorist cares. C+C is now only 85.67% of Liquids. <br /><br />On a slightly more applicable note, the US added 136 kb/d of Ethanol for 2009.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-62940323786270625062010-04-06T07:14:03.039-07:002010-04-06T07:14:03.039-07:00My guess is that the market feels it's once ag...My guess is that the market feels it's once again pushing against a pretty firm ceiling for non-OPEC production. So, it's all up to the swingers to set the price.Datamungerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10697373189192242333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17909007253948327402010-04-06T02:04:31.333-07:002010-04-06T02:04:31.333-07:00Stuart, me thinks this reasoning will be put to th...Stuart, me thinks this reasoning will be put to the test theses days, as we crossed the barrel price of 85$...which quite a few people say is the limit from where "the recovery" will be negatively affected by the oil price. So either OPEC (well, the Saudis and the oilbank) can actually keep the oil price in check, or there is nothing behind "spare capacity". Interesting.Manolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.com