tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post7132713171632746408..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: North Pole Still MeltingStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-69627141026115532172010-10-08T18:45:34.660-07:002010-10-08T18:45:34.660-07:00There are only 35 data points in the full set, so ...There are only 35 data points in the full set, so statistically the trend to the full set is pretty shaky. Even more so since fitting a straight line to something that doesn't seem to be a straight line set is pretty shaky. An exponential trend would seem more appropriate, or whatever produces the best R².Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-20802113205641818412010-10-08T15:30:35.896-07:002010-10-08T15:30:35.896-07:00RKS:
It's a good question, and I don't fu...RKS:<br /><br />It's a good question, and I don't fully know the answer. I do know that there is an expectation here in the north east US that winter snow storms due to lake effects snows from the Great Lakes will get worse for the next few decades (a point I alluded to, with source, <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/02/east-coast-snowstorms-predicted-by.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>). I would assume that the same would happen in early winter from an ice free arctic (but I don't know for sure). As Greg points out, however, the effect on the energy balance won't be very great since there is very little insolation in northern latitudes by then.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-10525410108450717722010-10-08T15:09:07.910-07:002010-10-08T15:09:07.910-07:00rks:
Snow falls in the winter, when there is not ...rks:<br /><br />Snow falls in the winter, when there is not much insolation anyway. The reflective effect of increasing the thickness of the layer of snow is pretty much nil. <br /><br />Ice will still form on the Arctic Ocean in the winter for decades to come. Snow is a pretty good thermal insulator, so snow sitting on the ice acts to slow heat loss from the ocean during the Arctic night. More snow will increase this effect.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-16414584104271013912010-10-08T13:28:34.219-07:002010-10-08T13:28:34.219-07:00"With that gone, almost all the sunlight on t..."With that gone, almost all the sunlight on the pole will be immediately absorbed and warm the polar ocean." Leading to more evaporation and more precipitation falling as snow on the surrounding land. What do the models say about the effect of that?rkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01183856757175002949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-36072990074606418032010-10-08T07:03:15.371-07:002010-10-08T07:03:15.371-07:00Sam:
Over intervals that short, the fit will be d...Sam:<br /><br />Over intervals that short, the fit will be dominated by the noise and will be meaningless.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-78714008878821585292010-10-08T06:59:11.539-07:002010-10-08T06:59:11.539-07:00And what's the trend post2007? (Yes, I know, p...And what's the trend post2007? (Yes, I know, paucity of data makes it likely a blip but...)Sam Charles Nortonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04088870675715850624noreply@blogger.com