tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post5611836760987693910..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Government Controlled Oil StocksStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-85525471878765411142011-06-26T11:00:41.458-07:002011-06-26T11:00:41.458-07:00Look what the cat brought in: a case of Pat ?
ht...Look what the cat brought in: a case of Pat ?<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/iea-opec-nash-equilibrium-collapses-1973-style-opec-embargo-nextManolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-12735569651736838132011-06-25T16:46:39.606-07:002011-06-25T16:46:39.606-07:00Isn't it funny how the start of the release is...Isn't it funny how the start of the release is the same as the end of QE2?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68105605191068828292011-06-24T09:54:30.475-07:002011-06-24T09:54:30.475-07:00Humm, may I ? Shrinking the SPR to zero seems very...Humm, may I ? Shrinking the SPR to zero seems very unlikely to me, the Pentagon will have it's say way, way before that. Well that's my 2 ct. anyway. Me thinks they are very much on edge right now...Manolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13630492236752920246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-27024162317857389072011-06-24T09:07:21.410-07:002011-06-24T09:07:21.410-07:00I don't think they're thinking of it that ...I don't think they're thinking of it that way. Qaddafi can't hold out forever, the Saudis *supposedly* will *eventually* pony up more oil, and even if they don't the economy should slow enough to not need to do the release more than a few months. <br />There's a Time article out that says they think Qaddafi's running out of time:<br />"In a conference call last week with reporters, deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said that he believes the conflict in Libya is winding down as Qaddafi's resources dwindle."<br />(http://beta.news.yahoo.com/libya-conundrum-congress-hold-two-votes-conflict-090419838.html)<br /><br />If nothing else, just reducing oil prices for a month would give the economy a boost. They don't necessarily need to *hold* prices down, just to get them down long enough for the lag to result in a small economic boost that appears in late summer of next year. Getting the lag time right is tricky, but they're probably thinking now would be good enough.kjmclarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00490417628052004621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-2668922779965768042011-06-24T08:29:31.114-07:002011-06-24T08:29:31.114-07:00kjm - yeah, I was planning on writing about what t...kjm - yeah, I was planning on writing about what that option looks like. Thing is, to decently juice the economy from now until Nov 2012 you'd need to blow most of the SPR on the project. 30 days in June/Jul 2011 just won't do much. If you keep up 2-3mbd all the way till next November, that would have a big impact on gas prices and consumer confidence, but obviously lead to a ton of (truthful) protests that the entire SPR was being blown imprudently.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-8846511716640522732011-06-24T08:01:28.781-07:002011-06-24T08:01:28.781-07:00Looks to me like a bridge to increased odds of re-...Looks to me like a bridge to increased odds of re-election. We crossed Prof. Hamilton's 6% of consumer spending threshold back in March; oil prices, along with poor housing sales and lack of stimulus, were pushing the economy back toward recession. The President can't do anything about housing prices or lack of stimulus. He can do something to lower oil prices, at least temporarily. Eventually a slowdown will reduce demand, and eventually the Libya problem will be resolved. <br /><br />Conveniently, the rest of the OECD could be convinced to make it a joint release, so it doesn't look quite as much like the political pandering that it is. It's a bad precedent, but it will be popular.<br /><br />If the gamble pays off, we stay out of recession and the President has a shot at re-election. Otherwise, we were head to at least a slowdown that the public would have perceived as a recession. A weak economy greatly reduces his chances of a second term.kjmclarkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00490417628052004621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17091249586486416862011-06-24T06:51:03.729-07:002011-06-24T06:51:03.729-07:00Kostas - the private stocks are not considered str...Kostas - the private stocks are not considered strategic reserves but are just inventories that private actors maintain in the normal course of business. Those cannot go down to anywhere close to zero before there would be serious shortages.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-43884026153249012362011-06-24T06:15:07.098-07:002011-06-24T06:15:07.098-07:00Stuart, according to wikipedia total strategic res...Stuart, according to wikipedia total strategic reserves (including private stock) is more than 4 billion barrels. That would probably be enough to keep oil prices in check for a few years even if we enter the period of non-reversible decline (though i think that the curve will probably be a bumpy plateau due to Iraq, Canada and pre-salt slowly coming into production in the following years).Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.com