tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post504558077493923214..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Another Terrifying Drought PaperStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-84770173724497861712012-08-16T21:17:02.260-07:002012-08-16T21:17:02.260-07:00Well your prediction for severe droughts has come ...Well your prediction for severe droughts has come true this summer - record levels of counties under drought conditions since 1988 and predicting to surpass. Maybe not the 1930's YET.mmbbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01175055506808851586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-48392459750221190112012-02-17T15:40:50.480-08:002012-02-17T15:40:50.480-08:00Susan - I agree there seems reasonably clear evide...Susan - I agree there seems reasonably clear evidence of increases in extreme rainfall events, and presumably that will show up in the flood statistics (though my present understanding is it's not that easy to make the latter case solidly and statistically at present - there have always been extreme flood events, so the challenge is to show both that they are materially more common nowadays, and that the effect can be attributed to climate change as opposed to other more localized habitat changes - eg deforestation). <br /><br />Still, my current sense is that while the future does involve more extremes in both directions, overall the planet is becoming hotter and drier, and the leading impacts will come from that direction.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-66382679293626493752012-02-17T12:20:12.409-08:002012-02-17T12:20:12.409-08:00Although there is more drought in some regions, th...Although there is more drought in some regions, there is more precipitation in others, as a result of climate change. <br /><br />I agree that the droughts will be terrible where they are, but look at ie Bangkok - underwater most of this year, and legislators actually considering moving the capital, as more precipitation is in future with climate change. <br /><br />Disastrous impacts from both results.Susan Kraemerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842660669585256557noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-35923182701581443742012-02-04T07:25:27.178-08:002012-02-04T07:25:27.178-08:00A lot of posters here still seem to have one foot ...A lot of posters here still seem to have one foot in the technological optimism camp – i.e., we can find new hi tech to sort out our problems. <br /><br />For those interested in low tech solution, permaculture suggests some answers:<br /><br />www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hF2QL0D5ww<br />www.tamera.org/index.php?id=508<br />www.watercheck.biz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=304:pushing-back-the-desert-the-water-retention-landscape-of-tamera&catid=1&Itemid=95<br /><br />And this is what has been done, on a very large scale, in a part of China:<br /><br />www.open.edu/openlearn/whats-on/ou-on-the-bbc-hope-changing-climateDavidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12519261367019261106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-80113546166430293302012-01-30T08:15:23.906-08:002012-01-30T08:15:23.906-08:00Alex - agree on the general excellence of RealClim...Alex - agree on the general excellence of RealClimate but unfortunately the frequency of posts there has fallen way off.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-12155801354477197262012-01-29T16:52:13.880-08:002012-01-29T16:52:13.880-08:00"Now, I certainly agree that climate change s..."Now, I certainly agree that climate change seems to be a very serious issue and the facts as best we know them justify taking resolute action, even in the face of the residual uncertainties. However, what I strive to do on my blog is to tell the truth, to the best of my ability, about whatever it is I'm talking about. I may at times fail in this due to various inadequacies of ability, knowledge, and character, but that is very much my highest conscious value. So I try hard not to use arguments or authorities that I think are not correct, even if they would support some larger goal that I think desirable. And it bothers me when I perceive others to be doing so."<br /><br />IMO Stuart, it is safe to say that your sentiment expressed above is the reason that keeps many of us coming back to your blog. Those who eschew agendas, who are truly in search of and interested only in the truth, appreciate your efforts here. Thank you.<br /><br />DonDonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04998336790408278060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-27488234233440365342012-01-29T12:54:01.502-08:002012-01-29T12:54:01.502-08:00Thanks Stuart,
in this sense RealClimate is an ex...Thanks Stuart,<br /><br />in this sense RealClimate is an excellent source of climate change related problems from climate scientist, but there are many others -- Joe Romm is indeed quite extreme in some ways but one can always check the original articles/sources.<br /><br />My opinion is that the later we start to do *really* something about climate change, the worse for us/our children. <br /><br />But maybe peak oil/peak debt will do it for us (?),<br /><br />regards,<br /><br />AlexAlexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-70533325375711973212012-01-29T12:46:21.164-08:002012-01-29T12:46:21.164-08:00Alex:
It's worth saying a little about your c...Alex:<br /><br />It's worth saying a little about your comment in re Joe Romm. I used to subscribe to Climate Progress but stopped, despite the fact that it sometimes had useful coverage of important climate papers, because I became irritated by the tone, but more importantly by my sense that the fundamental project of that blog is to be a partisan for the idea that climate change is very serious and important and society needs to take it much more seriously and address it (preferably through rather left leaning approaches). I felt that the blog is often not terribly careful about whether the particular pieces of evidence it uses to advance that agenda are actually correct or not - anything that supports the idea will be presented (often with a good deal of hype/spin) and anything that opposes, or even suggests uncertainty, will be rubbished.<br /><br />Now, I certainly agree that climate change seems to be a very serious issue and the facts as best we know them justify taking resolute action, even in the face of the residual uncertainties. However, what I strive to do on my blog is to tell the truth, to the best of my ability, about whatever it is I'm talking about. I may at times fail in this due to various inadequacies of ability, knowledge, and character, but that is very much my highest conscious value. So I try hard not to use arguments or authorities that I think are not correct, even if they would support some larger goal that I think desirable. And it bothers me when I perceive others to be doing so.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-42341733663378102532012-01-28T05:01:52.932-08:002012-01-28T05:01:52.932-08:00Porsena - I think that's right.Porsena - I think that's right.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-52550574745592422522012-01-28T05:01:26.761-08:002012-01-28T05:01:26.761-08:00Seth - wow thx! This wishlist thing is cool :-) ...Seth - wow thx! This wishlist thing is cool :-) The book looks extremely interesting.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-41442722536056739292012-01-27T23:09:58.183-08:002012-01-27T23:09:58.183-08:00There's considerable variation in the pictured...There's considerable variation in the pictured model outputs (grey lines). Just approximating what they say for 2012, one model seems to be saying that the proportion of the US and Mexico with PDSI <2 is close to zero. At the other end of the spectrum it's somewhere between 60 and 70%. So the comfort I take is that the predictions are pretty uncertain.porsenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04362269873149438270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68424271735957060612012-01-27T17:44:10.766-08:002012-01-27T17:44:10.766-08:00Stuart:
1 of: Anasazi America: Seventeen Centurie...Stuart:<br /><br />1 of: Anasazi America: Seventeen Centuries on the Road from Center Place [Hardcover] <br />By: David E. Stuart<br /><br />1 item will be shipped to Stuart Staniford by phoenixfriends. Estimated delivery: Feb. 3, 2012 - Feb. 21, 2012<br /><br />With thanks for an excellent blog.<br /><br />Regards,<br />-SethSethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16486234948199900568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-26515532825076180422012-01-27T14:11:23.817-08:002012-01-27T14:11:23.817-08:00Sunbeam - your point is well taken but I simply do...Sunbeam - your point is well taken but I simply don't think the climate models are good enough yet at modeling drought to be able to say with confidence exactly what the impact will be where. I don't really trust any of these maps. I believe "there will be far more drought overall" and even "it will be worst in the places that are semi-arid now" but I don't necessarily believe the exact regional distribution or the quantitative predictions of the models. Hopefully the science will improve.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-88762220469633021452012-01-27T14:08:15.762-08:002012-01-27T14:08:15.762-08:00Seth - book added to the wishlist!
My understandi...Seth - book added to the wishlist!<br /><br />My understanding is that most Native Americans thought the white man was insane and that it would all end badly ever since they first encountered us. But specifically yes the Hopi have been prophesying disaster for most of the 20th Century (eg I understand they sent a delegation to an early meeting of the UN to warn of it).Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-7211949018796900532012-01-27T09:54:42.529-08:002012-01-27T09:54:42.529-08:00"However, one story you might try .. suppose ..."However, one story you might try .. suppose climate change makes the weather less correlated ... you get a hot week or three and then a bunch of rain and cooler weather and then back again."<br /><br />This reminded me uncomfortably of the weather conditions described in Anasazi America:<br /><br />http://www.anasaziamerica.com/<br /><br />So Chaco Canyon is the 'hopey-changey' scenario? Ouch!<br /><br />I can't recall the exact quote, but Stuart says Hopi people expect American 'civilization' to disappear in a generation or two.Sethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16486234948199900568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-24248625966876644032012-01-27T09:17:37.152-08:002012-01-27T09:17:37.152-08:00I haven't read the original papers. But what ...I haven't read the original papers. But what does these graphs and maps mean on a more basic level?<br /><br />I can look at the map and say that agriculture is finished in most of the United States.<br /><br />Is that an accurate statement though? Could you still make a go of it in Iowa growing a less thirsty crop than corn? Like wheat, barley, or another grain?<br /><br />Tennessee, West Virginia, and Kentucky have the same sort of climate as Nevada has now, maybe drier.<br /><br />I've seen maps, and pictures and graphs. It's not hard to find a temperature projection.<br /><br />But things like the drought severity index tell me it is drier than normal (whatever and whenever normal was defined) for a certain area.<br /><br />Iowa in a drought is still a good bit more moist than Nevada in a normal year.<br /><br />I'm most interested in seeing projected inches of rain per year in an area, along with the temperature readings.<br /><br />And maybe a helpful tag like, "This area's projected climate is most like current day (2012) Arizona."<br /><br />I see these things and I am concerned. But what does it actually mean? A dust bowl in Minnesota? Minnesota become prairie? Minnesota has a climate like Greece or Turkey?<br /><br />I think I can understand why scientists don't want to make detailed predictions (though I think it could be extracted from the material they publish), they could be wrong or someone could accuse you of sensationalism.<br /><br />But a Palmer Drought Severity index is a little abstract if you want to get the average college graduate even concerned about this issue.sunbeamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04973635024133927262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-40048239978687057872012-01-27T04:51:38.277-08:002012-01-27T04:51:38.277-08:00Stuart Staniford turning to Joe Romm???Stuart Staniford turning to Joe Romm???Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-55278578720099931922012-01-27T01:16:40.706-08:002012-01-27T01:16:40.706-08:00Even if the weather were to be more changeable as ...Even if the weather were to be more changeable as the climate warms, there is no comfort to be had.<br /><br />Thomas Homer-Dixon, I think it is, points out in <i>The Upside of Down</i> that in many arid regions erosion is caused by water movement. As well as drier drys, warming is expected to bring wetter wets. When the rain comes it comes hard and removes topsoil as it runs off.<br /><br />A weather pattern of four months of dry followed by four or six inches of rain falling in 2 or 3 days would on average have a climate able to support agriculture. But in practice most of the rain would run off the dry surface, taking topsoil with it once it picks up speed.<br /><br />* * *<br />My guess for why it is the Colorado-Montana-Nebraska-Dakotas region that is projected to dry most is orography. With less snowfall on the Eastern side of the Rockies, and an earlier and quicker melt, there would be less stream-flow through these states in the growing season. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_Hills_%28Nebraska%29#Paleoclimate_and_future" rel="nofollow">The area has been dry</a> when warmed in the past.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-55787377670831040602012-01-26T10:19:10.257-08:002012-01-26T10:19:10.257-08:00Sunbeam: I should have mentioned that. The genera...Sunbeam: I should have mentioned that. The general idea is that the drought trend in the US is not yet clear enough to have risen out of the considerable natural variability. That is the position of this paper, and it's consistent with the Dai trend map (<a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/12/latest-palmer-drought-severity-trends.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>) which shows a slight wetting trend in the US the last sixty years.<br /><br />On a global basis (where the natural variability is averaged away better) it seems to be clear already that there's a drought trend (eg the first principal component of the PDSI field seems to be clearly consistent with an anthropogenic warming story). And all analyses of the climate models suggest that the US will not be spared this fate in the long haul.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-3255072329916294912012-01-26T10:11:12.446-08:002012-01-26T10:11:12.446-08:00One thing I should have mentioned but didn't t...One thing I should have mentioned but didn't think of until later - the idea that the weather could get more changeable and thus mitigate drought trends isn't very promising in light of the Hansen et al paper I discussed <a href="http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2012/01/lots-more-killer-summers-on-way.html" rel="nofollow">a couple of weeks back</a>. There it was shown that the distribution of average June-July-August temperatures is broadening as well as the mean shifting to the hot side. That suggests that empirically that long hot very dry summers are getting <i>more</i> common not less.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-20684584951847117262012-01-26T09:04:22.736-08:002012-01-26T09:04:22.736-08:00How does that jibe with the Hadley Cells moving No...How does that jibe with the Hadley Cells moving North?<br /><br />My understanding was that the Northern Plains have been uncommonly wet the past decade or so.<br /><br />I was actually kind of thinking that might be the new normal for them.sunbeamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04973635024133927262noreply@blogger.com