tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4952658114220288593..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Male Labor Force CompositionStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51172940469263949502010-08-20T19:48:13.373-07:002010-08-20T19:48:13.373-07:00Greg:
You're quite right - the BLS stats are ...Greg:<br /><br />You're quite right - the BLS stats are of the "Civilian noninstitutional population" and so the graphs above explicitly exclude prisoners and folks committed to asylums.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-80244256897068189772010-08-20T17:07:58.991-07:002010-08-20T17:07:58.991-07:00Here's a website that gives a pretty informati...Here's a website that gives a pretty informative history of incarceration in the United States.<br /><br />http://www.historyisaweapon.com/defcon1/audiocparenti.htmlThrundalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15359480583959012554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-42649195403152941882010-08-20T13:41:48.595-07:002010-08-20T13:41:48.595-07:00Correction - that 3.2% includes people on probatio...Correction - that 3.2% includes people on probation.<br /><br />Further down, the article says "[in 2008] approximately one in every 18 men in the United States is behind bars", and in 2002 93.2% of prisoners were male.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States#Population Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-50036026781873620002010-08-20T13:33:26.138-07:002010-08-20T13:33:26.138-07:00Um, doesn't the US have the largest prison pop...Um, doesn't the US have the largest prison population in the world, both in absolute terms and as a fraction of the adult population?<br /><br />Wikipedia says it's 3.2% of adult residents. Given that it's overwhelmingly male, it could be 6% of adult males.<br /><br />Also, I'm not sure whether military personnel are "in the labor force".Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-83801183230412211412010-08-20T09:25:10.866-07:002010-08-20T09:25:10.866-07:00Gary:
Yeah, that's an excellent question that...Gary:<br /><br />Yeah, that's an excellent question that I want to blog about further in future. I understand that labor economists believe that there is have been a big growth in the number of men classified as disabled, so that's one thing to look at (but I haven't quite got clean data on it yet). There's also the underground economy as Burk notes. The illegal drug trade is pretty big and has got to support a lot of people, in addition to under-the-table type payment arrangements for work that is otherwise legit (eg quite a bit of construction in rural areas happens this way, at least on the anecdotal evidence available to me). Then there's the possibility of various forms of "house-husband" being economically supported by women (ranging from guys who really do pull their weight fully in the domestic sector, to slackers who don't).Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-2716928934006063942010-08-20T08:49:34.540-07:002010-08-20T08:49:34.540-07:00Fantastic graphs, Stuart!
One interpretation mig...Fantastic graphs, Stuart! <br /><br />One interpretation might be that the last few decades have seen unemployment used increasingly as a core economic policy, to fight inflation and keep labor in line. This has led to the higher level of discouraged and under-the-radar workers you see (especially in minority communities). It is hard to make the case that there are more off-the-books workers now than in the heyday of organized crime, but data on that would be interesting.<br /><br />At any rate, government policy has gradually switched from one of full employment in the 50's/60's, to using recessions as a policy tool today against inflation. This corresponds to the ascendence of monetarism over Keynesianism. I think we need to get back to a sobered-up Keynesianism.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87969147761306394732010-08-20T07:41:24.508-07:002010-08-20T07:41:24.508-07:00When people are no longer in the work force are th...When people are no longer in the work force are they just sitting at home doing nothing? I doubt it. I think we are seeing a gradual transition towards a cash and barter based alternative economy that doesn't show up on the BLS statistics. My two cents here:<br /><br />http://squashpractice.wordpress.com/2010/08/19/depressing-debt-dogma-distills-deflation-dilemma/Garyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08580497879135994296noreply@blogger.com