tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4535743471386936763..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Progress Report on Iraqi Oil ExpansionStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-18256104791352175042010-07-29T12:22:44.915-07:002010-07-29T12:22:44.915-07:00Good catch Benno - yes, they are very cautious ind...Good catch Benno - yes, they are very cautious indeed. Their assumptions amount to all the IOCs losing their shirts!<br /><br />I suspect the truth will end up somewhere in between - Iraqi production will rise, but it will take materially longer than the Iraqi oil ministry hopes. That's assuming they can form a reasonably strong government that can guarantee the security environment, however. If not, then all bets are off.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-60575754129596415032010-07-29T11:25:27.426-07:002010-07-29T11:25:27.426-07:00Stuart, the EIA's latest International Energy ...Stuart, the EIA's latest <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html" rel="nofollow">International Energy Outlook</a> which came out (in full version) a few days back has a special section on future Iraq production that you may find interesting.<br /><br />Begins on page 34 but their not-euphoric assessment is on 35.<br /><br />Long term, they see it as a big factor, though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-23930887394585555902010-07-24T14:13:40.257-07:002010-07-24T14:13:40.257-07:00Looking @ the number of wells and the lack of proc...Looking @ the number of wells and the lack of processing infrastructure the Iraqi oil ministry suggestions are very much optimistic.<br /><br />What is the decline rate and the local consumption rate? How much is smuggled to Jordan, Syria and Iran. Who provides finished product such as diesel fuel?<br /><br />Finally, the assumption - presuming Iraq can produce 12m bpd - is that this added oil is going to be dumped on the market to drive the real price lower. <br /><br />Why would anyone do something so stupid?<br /><br />????Steve From Virginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04002636865996847926noreply@blogger.com