tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4439027384966779728..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Some relief on Eurozone Industrial OrdersStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-42608228970073392612012-01-06T09:01:33.460-08:002012-01-06T09:01:33.460-08:00I thought that the Euro was going to break up in t...I thought that the Euro was going to break up in the nearish term. The Sarko Trade has forced me to abandon that position. I now think the EMU could stumble along for years.<br /><br />So perhaps I am compensating when I say that a breakup is quite possibly better than the alternative, and the alternative is a European version of Japan's "lost decade":<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29<br /><br />Two decades of lost growth is a big deal.<br /><br />Krugman would say Japan's problem was a liquidity drap. The Economist long argued it was the result of the government refusing to reorganize its insolvent banks. Either way, the same thing looks to me like it will emerge in Europe if the EMU holds together.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16069860882299265079noreply@blogger.com