tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post4378227473686038123..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: National Breakdown of Recent Oil Supply FlatnessStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68323515917984732012013-02-28T14:16:22.875-08:002013-02-28T14:16:22.875-08:00This is not going to say much for price. In 2012 K...This is not going to say much for price. In 2012 KSA acted twice, once upwards in May-June to top 10.5 MMbbls/d but now they have acted to cut supply to under 9 MMbbls/d. This indicates they want the price above USD 100/bbl and are very willing to defend it.<br /><br />At this kind of breakeven price (about USD 65/bbl for their USD 290 million budget) they can contract their supply until round 6.8 MMbbls/d without feeling much pain, that's enormous market power.<br /><br />This was in Bloomberg today:<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-28/opec-february-output-rises-for-first-time-since-august-in.html<br /><br />"Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest oil producer, pumped 9 million barrels a day this month, the lowest level since May 2011. Output was down 100,000 barrels a day from January and 900,000 barrels from May, when production reached the highest level since at least January 1989." <br /><br />This article was published today in Bloomberg, they quote Sarah Emerson of the well know oil database Energy Security Analysis Inc (ESAI):<br /><br />“The Saudis have done what they needed to do to eliminate a glut of crude in the market,” Emerson said. “Brent is safely above $100 a barrel so they can stop cutting back. They will probably increase production in the second quarter.” <br /><br />I found also this report on their website which is quite interesting.<br /><br />http://www.esai.com/petroleum/13/pdf/ESAIEnergyAGCrudeExportsFebruary2013.pdfUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16046334687003381737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51922196917563054982013-02-28T10:35:53.745-08:002013-02-28T10:35:53.745-08:00Thanks. Not to nitpick but the chart doesn't ...Thanks. Not to nitpick but the chart doesn't include Mexico which has historically has been a large producer and in particular for the US but where production is falling sharply.<br /><br />Colombia is an interesting new entrant to the roll.patflahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03146408328788278621noreply@blogger.com