tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post3670869419301193829..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Failed State Index: China in Worsening Economic DeclineStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51161295774903468542012-08-10T10:05:56.690-07:002012-08-10T10:05:56.690-07:00Thank you for this data and analysis.
I find the ...Thank you for this data and analysis.<br /><br />I find the numbers to be consistent with China' worsening economic situation and rather dismal longer term prospects given the loss of their demographic dividend due to the one child policy. I will provide you some links showing why economists believe that China is headed for economic implosion, and is already showing signs of serious recession.<br /><br />http://stevensonfinancialmarketing.wordpress.com/2012/08/03/china-will-get-old-before-it-gets-rich/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-33136369644762813212010-01-28T16:04:06.558-08:002010-01-28T16:04:06.558-08:00Greg: Interesting! I wasn't aware of the EPI ...Greg: Interesting! I wasn't aware of the EPI - looks intriguing.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-84266146395440088042010-01-28T12:04:29.171-08:002010-01-28T12:04:29.171-08:00Coincidentally, Yale has just released its environ...Coincidentally, Yale has just released its environmental performance index:<br /><a href="http://epi.yale.edu/" rel="nofollow">epi.yale.edu</a> China is not in the "basket-case" category, but not doing well, either.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-34841546416501373802010-01-27T22:42:56.457-08:002010-01-27T22:42:56.457-08:00Aye.
Now if the Fund for Peace had used "env...Aye.<br /><br />Now if the Fund for Peace had used "environmental decline" instead of economic decline... that's it! They're dyslexic!<br /><br />Humour aside, environmental pressures ought to be on their list of measures.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11939046017258198038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-85479482694785450512010-01-27T12:25:23.280-08:002010-01-27T12:25:23.280-08:00Steve:
I don't agree that Chinese growth is m...Steve:<br /><br />I don't agree that Chinese growth is mainly inflation (ie illusory). While there's certainly scope for wondering about the accuracy of the figures, there's little doubt that there's large amount of actual concrete-and-steel economic growth with new buildings, roads, and railways. If you don't believe the official stats, just look at <a href="http://earthshots.usgs.gov/Beijing/Beijing" rel="nofollow">satellite pictures</a>. You can see the steel production figures, for example, at the <a href="http://www.worldsteel.org/?action=stats&type=steel&period=latestf" rel="nofollow">world steel association</a>. Chinese steel production went from 356Mt in 2005 to 567 Mt in 2009. Hardly a sign of "sharp economic decline".Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-60639969754997285632010-01-27T12:15:43.960-08:002010-01-27T12:15:43.960-08:00squashpractice - well, I can all of those as argum...squashpractice - well, I can all of those as arguments for the "Uneven development" indicator to worsen (though in fact there's been a huge build-out of rural housing too). But they don't make any sense as arguments for the "Sharp economic decline" indicator. I just don't see how any reasonable analysis can view a massive infrastructure and housing buildout as an economic decline. A reasonable person could argue that it's unwise, that it will have environmental impacts, that it should cause an increase in the corrupt government indicator, or that it isn't sustainable and might lead to risks of decline in the future. But it just seems to me flat out senseless to consider it as actual evidence of a concurrent economic decline.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-71780749868981094592010-01-27T10:38:35.876-08:002010-01-27T10:38:35.876-08:00Here is the "official" explanation for t...Here is the "official" explanation for the change from 0.5 to 4.5 that you are concerned about from the Fund for Peace website: <br /><br />Economic Indicators <br /><br />China’s uneven development rating increased from a score of 9.0 in FSI 2005 to 9.2 in FSI 2006. Major development projects were implemented all across China immediately after the announcement of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, but the nation continues to suffer from a stark contrast between poor rural areas and coastal urban developments. The economic indicator rose from 0.5 in FSI 2005 to 4.5 in FSI 2006, due to a variety of factors, including lack of growth in rural job opportunities, persistent corruption and other economic crimes, and the immense environmental damage and social conflict resulting directly from the fast-paced development and land grabs by local politicians that are impoverishing and displacing peasants.<br /><br />I have to admit - I don't see how you can quantify any of these indicators very reliably.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-5782330170858555492010-01-27T09:42:19.011-08:002010-01-27T09:42:19.011-08:00I agree with your approach. Mexico is a better can...I agree with your approach. Mexico is a better candidate - at the moment - than is China.<br /><br />However, this can change in a heartbeat. China's official GDP figures probably measure inflation. China cannot afford to cut back on stimulus - as it keeps the bogeyman of world- wide deflation at bay. Consequently the bubbles in stocks and real estate expand. To prevent these from deflating the PBOC is likely to add even more funds levered from increasing 'hot money' flows in all currencies that form China's reserves. More funds, more inflation, more hot money .. the outcome is likely default in an unorthodox form.<br /><br />Even after such a default, China becoming a failed state like Somalia ... is hardly likely. China has experienced far worse than a currency collapse in its past. Genghis Khan, Imperial Japan's occupation and the civil war come to mind. China endures, but as a form of quasi- America ... never.Steve From Virginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04002636865996847926noreply@blogger.com