tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post326377544851499873..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: "Why Cheap Oil is Here to Stay"Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-56875516675055553762009-12-04T23:44:10.465-08:002009-12-04T23:44:10.465-08:00First of all, thanks for posting a blog. I've ...First of all, thanks for posting a blog. I've seen your articles @ Oil Drum and am glad for more info.<br /><br />Second, the media is hopeless, even the flagship NY Times and NPR. I cannot listen to the radio any more, I wind up screaming at it. All BS, all the time.<br /><br />I agree with you as to price although the upper bound is probably a bit higher than where it is now. Last venture over $82 a couple of weeks ago hit the S&P in the sensitive areas.<br /><br />No doubt King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud watches the stocks.<br /><br />The crude/dollar relationship is very important; I don't think the current trend price is a result of inflation or dollar devaluation relative to other currencies.<br /><br />I think the price spike last year and the overshoot decline had more to do with dynamics in the futures markets as there was an effective corner on the short side toward the end of summer. There is also a pricing dynamic that takes place in 'choice' markets that is hard to describe in 25 words or less.<br /><br />I'll go into it more when I have more time to comment. <br /><br />Take care ...Steve From Virginiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04002636865996847926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-74212506474597852312009-12-03T19:23:27.036-08:002009-12-03T19:23:27.036-08:00I'm still annoyed about it, so I'll probab...I'm still annoyed about it, so I'll probably dump on it some more in the morning :-)Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-78584221548000254172009-12-03T19:22:23.233-08:002009-12-03T19:22:23.233-08:00I think analysts at financial institutions are req...I think analysts at financial institutions are required to take a position on prices. You can't sell a research report, or impress potential investment banking clients with gifts of them, if the gist of the report is "We don't know". Doesn't do to admit that. So they have to take a position.<br /><br />Meanwhile, CNN's business reporters have to write stories about *something*. And probably the more hits the better. So it's in everybody's interest to create and propagate this kind of BS. Except readers - they'd be better off never having seen the result...<br /><br />The link on the Goldman pistol packing is hilarious...Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-35786641401910314622009-12-03T14:20:24.263-08:002009-12-03T14:20:24.263-08:00Meanwhile, Goldman expects crude to average $110 ...Meanwhile, Goldman expects crude to average <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=agnrYy0khRck" rel="nofollow"> $110 in 2011 </a> and for US unemployment to peak at <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/goldman-forecast-unemployment-to-peak.html" rel="nofollow"> 10.75%</a> that same year.<br /><br />Oh yeah, and their senior people are <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahD2WoDAL9h0" rel="nofollow"> packing side-arms. </a>.Datamungerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10697373189192242333noreply@blogger.com