tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post2680112870949093940..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Peak Oil is not SynchronousStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-39571169350333433982012-05-05T18:59:06.476-07:002012-05-05T18:59:06.476-07:00Another consideration when looking at the two coun...Another consideration when looking at the two countries mentioned, China and Germany, is the relative energy content/value of the imports/exports.<br /><br />Germany exports tend towards high intellectual value content (engineering, machining, etc.) products.<br /><br />China's products tend towards a higher ratio of resource intensive products (energy, steel, plastics, etc.) which are compensated by matching low labor costs, though these have been rising.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00393819935065080766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-64303482950175214372011-06-30T01:18:18.912-07:002011-06-30T01:18:18.912-07:00In the last ten years there has been a major shift...In the last ten years there has been a major shift in production, from the Europe (and North America) to Asia (China). Anything I buy today in Sweden is made in China or has a chinese copy that is much cheaper. My thesis is then that the decline of oil in Europe that is seen in your graph is simply shifted to Asia. This shift means no impact what so ever for the people of Europe (and North America), just that the goods you buy are cheaper. Well there is a risk of unemplyment, but that is not a major problem in Sweden and Germany as of now. Can you do some type of analysis of this thesis?Tommy Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17833548986644372095noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-83972544163017158782011-06-29T04:41:12.004-07:002011-06-29T04:41:12.004-07:00Justin - that's a fascinating link.Justin - that's a fascinating link.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-68396537147241592082011-06-29T04:29:56.356-07:002011-06-29T04:29:56.356-07:00Stuart: Given that Japan is the post growth poster...Stuart: Given that Japan is the post growth poster child and a harbinger of things to come, whether it is a "pleasant and civilised country to live in" deserves to be looked at a bit more closely. <br /><br />After having lived there on and off for 30 years, Japan is certainly 'a pleasant and civilised country to live in' for the majority of people, particularly if you are middle class and live in Tokyo. But for a lot of Japanese people, circumstances are somewhat different. Many prefectures are seeing severe decline, with outright poverty showing through in many cases.<br /><br />You should read through some of Richard Hendy's posts on Spike Japan to get a better feel for how a post growth society starts to fray at the edges:<br /><br />http://spikejapan.wordpress.com/The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-21396158083354476612011-06-28T13:22:04.156-07:002011-06-28T13:22:04.156-07:00I think the Iraq post is the best post I have read...I think the Iraq post is the best post I have read in years on a Peak Oil related subject. I see the situation a bit differently than Stuart (I think Stuart is perhaps underestimating the role al-Sadr will play and not entirely taking into account the fact the the insurgents have every reason to bide their time until the scheduled US withdraw happens) - but that does not change the fact that Stuart raised and so capably analyzed a factor that (as far as I could see) nobody else was looking at.<br /><br />Iraq Post = BrilliantJameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16069860882299265079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-28728939985462530762011-06-28T13:03:52.603-07:002011-06-28T13:03:52.603-07:00Emil:
:-) FWIW, I remain obdurately unembarrasse...Emil:<br /><br />:-) FWIW, I remain obdurately unembarrassed by the Iraq post. I still think it's entirely within the envelope of reasonably likely outcomes that Iraq will produce 10mbd+ and delay peak oil by a decade. I think it's unlikely they'll hit that level in seven years, and also entirely possible they'll fail (both points I made at the time).<br /><br />Your point about this post (and John Weber's similar point above) I hope to explore in a future piece.Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-17276543644946762352011-06-28T12:36:36.059-07:002011-06-28T12:36:36.059-07:00Stuart, you simply can't make an analogy betwe...Stuart, you simply can't make an analogy between an individual country like Germany which has already peaked and the entire world.<br /><br />Germany may have already peaked but their economy is export-based and exports need relatively cheap energy, mainly oil, prices to grow.<br /><br />I do like your tendancy to view complex issues from the other side and make careful analysis like you just did(I'm no fan of the CAPS-doomers), but knee-jerk optimism will not be sufficient either, especially comparing (very small) apples like country-by-country peaks and huge oranges like a global peak event(however drawn out that event may be).<br /><br />FYI, I'm in the moderate camp as well but surely this embarrasing post must be placed in the same category as your 'Iraq Can Prolong The Peak By Ten Years And Produce 10 mb/d'(no matter how many caveats you placed there, the story still stood).Emilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14468005369763866961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-15458907265588675462011-06-28T09:42:01.344-07:002011-06-28T09:42:01.344-07:00Ah, found my paper:
World oil demand’s shift tow...Ah, found my paper: <a href="http://www.econ.nyu.edu/dept/courses/gately/OilDemandDargayGatelyFeb2010.pdf" rel="nofollow"><br />World oil demand’s shift toward faster growing <br />and less price-responsive products and regions</a> (pdf), <br />by Joyce M. Dargay and Dermot Gately, published February 2010.<br /><br /><i>Abstract <br />Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product – transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil – for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuelswitching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are <br />faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining percapita demand for the world as a whole – by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC – we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which <br />they project.</i>KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-57247212274972740652011-06-28T09:10:52.178-07:002011-06-28T09:10:52.178-07:00It depends on what nations are cutting back on, yo...It depends on what nations are cutting back on, your average citizen isn't going to notice a material difference in their quality of life when switching from fuel oil to NG for their boiler. This goes double or treble for things like industrial use of pentanes plus or burning residual fuel oil for power generation; if those applications are simply transferred to developing nations with less stringent environmental regulations you just have globalization in action.<br /><br />As an example Germany in 2008 consumed 58.86 kb/d less jet fuel than their average 1984-2008. But they consumed 53.93 kb/d more diesel, negating any gains. <br /><br />Here's my spread sheet of <b><a href="http://depositfiles.com/files/yxh0isai8" rel="nofollow">International EIA Data Petroleum (xls format).</a></b> Sheets are included with detailed consumption data for France/UK/Germany/Japan/KSA/Egypt, which is a bit of a chore to compile; hope this is of use. <br /><br />There was an excellent study of demand patterns worldwide, issued a couple of years ago; I neglected to bookmark it, or bookmarked it in some non-obvious fashion; will try and hunt that down later today. It was a woman and man, issued by some NY university I believe.KLRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00691172491186270514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-22095717798720868622011-06-28T07:37:05.528-07:002011-06-28T07:37:05.528-07:00Your comment on Italy, Germany and Japan's pea...Your comment on Italy, Germany and Japan's peak consumption does not take into account energy embedded in materials both for further manufacturing and finished goods brought into the country. This is a global, complex system.John Weber https://www.blogger.com/profile/18104568019314685460noreply@blogger.com