tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post2518453436745909321..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Food Prices Rose Again in FebruaryStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-87761358127135739382011-03-05T11:32:46.505-08:002011-03-05T11:32:46.505-08:00Libyan exports reduced somewhere between 500K and ...Libyan exports reduced somewhere between 500K and 900K barrels/day. IEA Member nations have 4.1 billion barrels in reserve. WTI has gone up 10% in a week while Brent changed just slightly. It cannot be anything but speculation....<br /><br />Release some reserves to the market to smack the speculators and maybe next time this will not happen.BShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03260942270795402881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-38985899941841057182011-03-04T11:22:33.253-08:002011-03-04T11:22:33.253-08:00(A)greed ;-)(A)greed ;-)Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-91862651671819909302011-03-04T03:48:50.346-08:002011-03-04T03:48:50.346-08:00My view on the speculation thing is that speculati...My view on the speculation thing is that speculation and herd behavior can cause overshoot, but the initial trend is generally due to real fundamental issues. In this case, commodity prices are going up primarily because of demand growth in developing countries (combined in some cases by supply constraints).Stuart Stanifordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-51745411188664773622011-03-04T02:35:03.092-08:002011-03-04T02:35:03.092-08:00Mike,
recession started sooner, than oil price dr...Mike,<br /><br />recession started sooner, than oil price drop. First, M3 money supply slowed, home prices started to collapse, then Lehman collapsed (the already was an recession), and THEN oil prices collapsed. How would you explained such sudden and RAPID decline merely due to recession, which was already underway? <br /><br />Nothing to do with market psychology? (herd behaviour..?)Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-53755541181163030902011-03-03T19:52:05.672-08:002011-03-03T19:52:05.672-08:00The large drop in the price of oil was proof of re...The large drop in the price of oil was proof of recession, not speculation.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02957020536641219683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-60783490420150115842011-03-03T18:35:04.810-08:002011-03-03T18:35:04.810-08:00The price of coffee beans has doubled in the last ...The price of coffee beans has doubled in the last year. Some grains are up 70%. Bad economic news regardless of its speculative comment.porsenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04362269873149438270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-30605136610639840222011-03-03T13:12:36.820-08:002011-03-03T13:12:36.820-08:00One way to rise oil prices is buying futures and l...One way to rise oil prices is buying futures and leting them deliver to your own storage.Kamilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14527274323642523489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-46227285048912034282011-03-03T13:06:10.815-08:002011-03-03T13:06:10.815-08:00Imagine what that slope of that graph would look l...Imagine what that slope of that graph would look like if the rice crop was not plentiful....A Quaker in a Strange Landhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15425198389944137571noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-71557516356692968782011-03-03T11:19:02.708-08:002011-03-03T11:19:02.708-08:00Dear Kostas,
I am not sure but clearly the Lehman...Dear Kostas,<br /><br />I am not sure but clearly the Lehman Brothers collapse led to panic sell-out and oil prices dropped from 147 do 35 in a matter of few months... clearly such large drop was a proof of speculation. Current run up in commodities (check also PMs - precious metals) is very similar if not worse to the first run up... and it is no sustainable by any measure...Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-69845768392929877462011-03-03T09:00:34.098-08:002011-03-03T09:00:34.098-08:00I would really like to understand how speculation ...I would really like to understand how speculation can drive a commodity's price to the opposite direction of the spot price. Commodities are not stocks, they are traded in the futures market. A future is a contract. The holder has the *obligation* to buy the commodity at the specified price on delivery date. If the spot price is lower he suffers a loss, otherwise he gains a profit. In other words if someone bets against the market with a future he is destined to lose when the contract expires.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-39454264115008171732011-03-03T06:36:48.939-08:002011-03-03T06:36:48.939-08:00This increase in price is result of the speculatio...This increase in price is result of the speculation (in case of food as well as oil) - supported by market psychology and maybe also of QE - but we are still in deflation (M3 money supply decreases) - so the second market crash should come soon, but I repeat myself :-)Alexander Achttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16845172528191878930noreply@blogger.com