tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post1683174525221553575..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Working Age Employment/Population RatiosStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-43764614003559730632011-03-07T11:01:38.430-08:002011-03-07T11:01:38.430-08:00Thanks for a fascinating post. One might offer a d...Thanks for a fascinating post. One might offer a different hypothesis from the singularity or other ways to blame workers for not working, which is that jobs are scarcer and worse-paying. Mainstream economists think highly of the non-inflation accelerating unemployment rate (NAIRU), but don't have any good way to know what it is. They just think it exists, and is good for the economy, when in reality, our goal should be employment for everyone who wants to work. <br /><br />The upshot is that our macroeconomic settings (interest rates, budget deficits, etc.) have all been biased to lower employment than necessary since the 70's, keeping an army of the unemployed in reserve. The effect has been not only to lower wages and wage expectations and lower the share of income going to labor, but it also has forced families to have two people in the work force rather than one, destroyed unions, and shifted power generally to corporations and management. <br /><br />In markets, power goes to those doing the choosing, so small shifts in the numbers can cause big shifts in power and outcome.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-9433282205135630202011-03-07T08:16:10.483-08:002011-03-07T08:16:10.483-08:00I should add that Huff's complaint was directe...I should add that Huff's complaint was directed toward news sources catering to a less sophisticated audience.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13071103776144941751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-11230916032733060422011-03-07T08:08:06.288-08:002011-03-07T08:08:06.288-08:00Your posts are special, essentially beyond critici...Your posts are special, essentially beyond criticism. However, regarding this graph, I will note the following from the Wiki entry on Darrell Huff's 1954 book How to Lie With Statistics. <br /><br /><br />" ...It also shows how statistical graphs can be used to distort reality, for example by truncating the bottom of a line or bar chart, so that differences seem larger than they are..."Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13071103776144941751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-46605327900320332552011-03-07T06:37:27.790-08:002011-03-07T06:37:27.790-08:00Looks like a lot of couples may have decided havin...Looks like a lot of couples may have decided having one worker in a volatile but higher earning sector (most male jobs) and one worker in a secure but less lucrative position (most female jobs) is a smart way to manage the modern job market.<br /><br />It may soon turn out this is the *only* way to survive, as wages in both sectors seem to be stagnating and yet food and fuel costs continue to rise...<br /><br />Also, I wonder how many women *say* they are deciding to stay home for the kids, after failing to find a job for awhile, because it feels better and is a more socially acceptable explanation than just failing to be employable-- which hits one's psyche pretty badly. Unfortunately, men don't usually have this kind of social option for their lack of employment, which may end up straining relationships as these men deal with both intense internal stress and wider social disapproval. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if these narratives soon change, so the disproportionate psychological effects from being unemployed may soon be ending.jemandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14019113699488108374noreply@blogger.com