tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post1423398614116035426..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Extreme Weather Possibly Increasing Power Outages?Stuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-55986608313386352322013-05-27T09:10:18.449-07:002013-05-27T09:10:18.449-07:00In particular, I'd want to really understand t...<i>In particular, I'd want to really understand the large increase in non-weather-related outages.</i><br /><br />It's not confusing at all: the right-hand axis on the graph has been drawn in a way that makes it confusing. If you imagine the white line (the generation line) at consistently half its graphed height, you will see that non-weather related outages track generation pretty well. It's the weather-related overages that have been exaggerated in recent years.KAPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11189506171267750391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-26791873947090700002013-05-24T14:17:00.012-07:002013-05-24T14:17:00.012-07:00Yeah, I wonder about the things Burk Braun brings ...Yeah, I wonder about the things Burk Braun brings up too. Particularly the idea of degraded infrastructure-- I'd guess the age of the average distribution structure is continuing to rise, but this would be a thing (relatively) easily tested. jemandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14019113699488108374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-50393562552650287122013-05-24T10:19:33.109-07:002013-05-24T10:19:33.109-07:00I'd be a skeptic. The free-market forces on ut...I'd be a skeptic. The free-market forces on utilities, defanging of regulators, and general acceptance of degraded infrastructure seem to me more pertinent factors. Perhaps also the expiring lifespan of so much of our infrastructure that was build over the mid-20th century heyday.Burkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11158223475895530397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-8445393941633363752013-05-24T09:45:46.388-07:002013-05-24T09:45:46.388-07:00That's very interesting data.
Anecdotally, ...That's very interesting data. <br /><br />Anecdotally, it seems that power outages have increased on the neighborhood level from my point of view compared to when I was a kid 4 decades ago. I had noticed that quite a few suburban neighborhoods have seen their large tree cover grow in quite a bit from when the former farm and pasture land that was once a prominent feature of the landscape was abandoned for housing and figured the increasing likelihood that large trees can and will pull down power lines and poles to be the cause of the rise. (That is, it has actually taken quite a fair bit of time for suburban areas to become truly dominated by large trees after the suburban areas were developed.)<br /><br />But of course suburbs are only part of our landscape.<br /><br />I had also thought that the increasing sophistication of the grid, out beyond and above the neighborhood level, had reduced grid failures, but this data shows that is not the case.<br /><br />Perhaps the grid, being larger, more far-flung, and more sophisticated than ever before, is now more failure-prone, rather than less.<br /><br />I don't discount the possibility of increasingly violent weather, but to me it seems that the outage data is climbing more quickly than the weather is deteriorating - again, speaking anecdotally. Stephen B.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00746137367376861899noreply@blogger.com