tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post1030606143720120017..comments2024-02-23T01:30:06.101-08:00Comments on Early Warning: Appropriate Retirement Planning AssumptionsStuart Stanifordhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07182839827506265860noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-61266058893265479372010-09-23T02:32:43.926-07:002010-09-23T02:32:43.926-07:00I (1968) got interested in peak oil in 2004 (after...I (1968) got interested in peak oil in 2004 (after seeing a documentary about "The Hydrogen economy" based on Jeremy Rifkin's book) and dug into ASPO. I wrote a piece for myself to arrange my thoughts, as I was pretty scared by the prospect of Peak Oil and gave myself some advices:<br /><br />1) get an efficient car<br />2) don't buy american shares<br />3) insulate your house<br />4) think of buying gold<br /><br />I did 1 2 and 3, and regret not doing 4 (looking back at the goldprice of those days!)<br /><br />I just don't see how the western economy on average is going to keep growing at a percentage that is needed to "build my pension", so i expect that i will have to live of savings during my working life when i retire. I see the amount that the Dutch state pension and my company pension will pay as a bonus.Kweksmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08773770214269686115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-34176180199719858792010-09-23T02:23:43.119-07:002010-09-23T02:23:43.119-07:00Stuart, you are absolutely correct. My employer r...Stuart, you are absolutely correct. My employer recently switched to a new 401k management company and during their "information" sessions, they quoted how the stock market returned an average of something like 12% annually. But, they were starting from 1985! If they had started from 1965, their number would have been way worse. I remember that period from 1965 to 1980 when the stock market was basically flat -- it hurt a lot of people including my parents. Now that time is coming again, except there won't be another bull market to follow -- peak oil will see to that.Stephen O'Brienhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10243504348993479007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5235419263414453422.post-56963735427378657902010-09-22T09:05:35.166-07:002010-09-22T09:05:35.166-07:00my retirement has to be funded on a strict cash ba...<i>my retirement has to be funded on a strict cash basis.</i><br /><br />If you are a passive investor, yes, I think that gloomy assessment is reasonable.<br /><br />But with your scientific acumen, you might want to make a few informed hail marys, not betting the farm on any one investment or on all of them together. The economy remains extremely dynamic under the surface. Over the next 10 years some investments will return 40x or more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com